2018/10/23

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Increase amount of coal with demand over supply creates historic record

Nearly two months of tight supply of coal in the steel industry, individual steel coking coal blending coal stocks almost broken supply, corporate coal stocks are generally low, winter storage is approaching, steel joint to the Development and Reform Commission to coal, to ensure the normal production.

The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a release of some of the advanced coal production capacity signal, the coal supply tensions is expected to ease, but in October, the pace of coal prices will not stop, and the industry will continue to supply pattern.

First, the large coal prices in October coal prices continue to rise

Domestic coal, coal, coal, Yitai four coal enterprises from October 1 onwards 5500 kcal coal water long association price raised to 548 yuan / ton, compared with September long association price rose 88 yuan / ton, Price increases hit a record. But with Qinhuangdao Port 5500 kcal market price of coal compared to the price is still low 30 yuan / ton.

Four coal prices increase the long association price is too low to make before the amendment to the pricing, but also for the upcoming year-end long-term contract negotiations to prepare. And this also means that the National Development and Reform Commission to a certain extent, the fact that the price of coal has compromised to accept. The domestic coal market supply will continue for some time, in October the price of coal will continue to rise.

In fact, coal prices rise at the same time, the domestic coal industry is still not out of the overall loss situation.

Coal resources, the latest data show that in August the loss of the national coal mining area in about four percent. Compared to July, the thermal coal sample mine production capacity accounted for 43.4%, compared with the previous month decreased by 18%; coking coal sample mining area of about 60% loss, loss of mine production capacity accounted for 60.3%, compared with the previous month Narrow 19%.

According to the China Coal Industry Association statistics show that as of the end of July, the national scale above the total liabilities of coal enterprises 3.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7%, the average asset-liability ratio reached 70%. Second, winter storage is approaching, the release of production capacity

September 27, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to ensure the stability of the national winter coal TV teleconference deployment, tentative October 1, 2016 - December 31, 2016 in line with advanced production capacity of coal mines will be part of the orderly release of safety capacity.

Meet the above conditions of the coal mine, in 276 to 330 working days between the release of production capacity, not involved in the release of coal production capacity is still strictly enforced 276 working days system.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission statistics show that the current daily gap of about 900,000 tons of coal, taking into account winter storage factors, the average daily four months after this year about 11 million tons of coal, daily output of 1 million tons, to be able to maintain the coal Supply and demand balance. The policy news release, is expected to have more than 600 coal mines in the fourth quarter can be increased by 330 working days.

Third, foreign coal prices continue to rise

Statistics show that domestic coal prices rose sharply, making the downstream procurement of imported coal increased imports in recent months, continued to increase the situation.

August, coal imports to 26.59 million tons, an increase of 52.1%, a record high of nearly 20 months. Among them, August China's imports of thermal coal is the largest country in Australia, imports were 5.36 million tons, the chain rose 16.2%, or 44.4% year on year.

Recent increases in domestic coal prices gradually reduced, but the Australian coal prices are still rising sharply, especially since June to expand, the Australian Newcastle port thermal coal spot price is close to 70 US dollars / ton.

Fourth, the sale of coal mine re - Fengshengshuiqi

With the rise in coal prices, coal mining has become lucrative up. And only six months ago, 8 percent of coal companies in the discussion of layoffs and the sale of the problem.

April, the world's coal giant, has a 128-year-old US Peabody Energy (Peabody Energy) in April this year filed for bankruptcy protection.

Fourteen months ago, Australia's Stanmore Coal acquired the Vale and Sumitomo mines in Isaac Plains, Queensland, for AUD $ 1. Today, Yancoal Australia and Glencore are bidding for Rio Tinto's Australian coal mine, which is priced directly to $ 1 billion.

At the same time, Mongolia or will be expected to restart in the south of the world's largest coal mine - Tower of Tolgoi mine tender. Currently, the people's party won the election in late June has been fully in power, had been stranded TT mine project, may be the government of Mongolia to boost the economy one of the options. Remember the official visit to Mongolia made by the leaders of the country a few days ago? It is estimated that the matter of coal mining is rapidly coming to an end.

V. Summary

Coal prices will continue to rise, but the decline in coal prices continue to reduce the loss of coal enterprises to increase profitability. To the production capacity will remain the main theme of the fourth quarter, the coal industry is picking up.


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